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Wind Power Industry Development Prospects: A Review, Current Status, And Outlook

Development Review: From Technology Introduction to Global Leadership

The development of wind power in China can be clearly divided into four stages, a process interwoven with policy-driven forces, technological breakthroughs, and market cycle fluctuations.

 

Four Development Stages

Emerging Exploration Stage (Before 2010): Starting with the first grid-connected wind farm in 1986. Localization requirements and tax incentives such as "three years of tax exemption and three years of tax reduction" fostered the emergence of the first batch of domestic manufacturing enterprises, leading to rapid growth.

Onshore Wind Power

Industry Reshuffling Stage (2011-2013): Due to early project quality issues and overcapacity, approvals tightened, leading to the first round of industry consolidation and adjustment, returning to rationality.

 

Policy Support Stage (2014-2018): The focus shifted to supporting offshore wind power. Addressing the issue of "wind curtailment" (which peaked at 17% in 2016), the government established an investment monitoring and early warning mechanism, achieving significant results, with the curtailment rate dropping to 7% in 2018.

 

 

Steady Growth Period (2019-Present): Since 2020, subsidies for onshore wind power have been completely eliminated, officially ushering the industry into a new era of "grid parity."

 

Key Milestone Data

 

The speed and scale of China's wind power development are astonishing. From its inception to becoming the absolute dominant force globally, the following charts illustrate China's leapfrog development in wind power:

 

After years of rapid development, China's wind power is currently undergoing a profound transformation from pursuing "number one in scale" to pursuing "value leadership." Onshore wind power is stable, while offshore wind power has become a key growth engine.

 

Installed Capacity and Power Generation: Absolute Global Leader

By the end of 2025, China's cumulative grid-connected wind power capacity will increase by 23% year-on-year, accounting for more than 45% of the global total, firmly ranking first in the world. The cumulative installed capacity will reach 640 million kilowatts.

 

Power generation accounts for approximately 11% of the total electricity consumption of the whole society, making it a major power source for ensuring power supply.

 

New installed capacity in 2025 was 5.6GW, slightly lower than the initial expectation. However, its cumulative installed capacity already accounts for more than half of the global total, and its new installed capacity has ranked first globally for seven consecutive years.

 

 

New Landscape of Industry Chain Competition

The focus of industry competition has shifted from simple scale expansion to competition based on "power generation value."

 

Core Challenges: Obstacles on the Road Ahead

 

Despite its promising prospects, the wind power industry faces several core challenges while developing rapidly:

 

The pressure of curtailment was even greater in some areas, such as Northeast China, potentially approaching 20%.

 

The Dilemma of Market-Oriented Transition: With onshore wind power fully participating in electricity market bidding, price fluctuations increased the uncertainty of project profitability. Especially in some provinces, vicious price competition occurred, leading to extremely low profit margins across the industry chain.

 

"Anti-Involution" and Profitability Recovery: The industry's mainstream is shifting from price competition to quality competition. In 2025, the average winning bid price for onshore wind turbines (excluding towers) rebounded by approximately 11%, but the impact on performance will take time. Some turbine manufacturers' profits remain under pressure, while component manufacturers' profits have generally more than doubled, resulting in a significant divergence in profits between upstream and downstream sectors.

 

Future Prospects: New Three Poles of Demand and Target Roadmap

 

Looking ahead, driven by various new demands, China's wind power installed capacity will remain high, with clear long-term goals.

 

Five key annual trends for the future: Aiming for a 5 billion kilowatt target, accelerating the expansion of offshore wind power into the deep sea, and promoting new pathways for energy consumption through direct green power connections.

 

Policy support: The construction of large-scale wind and solar power bases continues to accelerate, and national renewable energy subsidies are being disbursed at an accelerated pace to provide buffer support for grid parity projects.

 

Industry chain collaboration: Advancing technological breakthroughs and innovations in key areas such as the chemical recycling of retired wind turbine blades, moving beyond the single role of power generation, and transforming into a comprehensive energy service provider encompassing hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol.

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Excellence in Research and Development
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